Will Russia invade Ukraine?

Tensions between Russia and Ukraine are at boiling point. Russia has moved roughly 100’000 troops to the border with Ukraine, alongside tanks, artillery, and airpower. The Kremlin accuses NATO of breaking promises made during the 1990s not to expand. NATO countries respond that any reassurances were made to the Soviet Union, not to the Russian Federation, and that NATO membership is anyway a matter for Ukraine to decide.

Meanwhile, the US and EU are preparing a new round of economic sanctions against Russia. But will sanctions increase the pressure on Russia to dial down the tensions, or will they make things worse? What can be done to defuse the situation and prevent a war?

What do our readers think? We had a comment sent in from Yvetta, who thinks there is an inevitable geostrategic logic driving Russian aggression towards Ukraine, and this logic means “[Putin] will have to invade or somehow take more aggressive action in Ukraine”.

We also had a comment from Antuanetta, who thinks the EU should respond to an invasion of Ukraine by kicking Russia out of the SWIFT payment system, while another comment came from Tadeusz suggesting that Germany should be ready to cancel Nord Stream 2.

To get a response to these comments, we put them to Filip Sasic from Network 20/20, a New York-based NGO with a focus on foreign affairs.

We also put Antuanetta’s comment to Viola von Cramon-Taubadel, a German Green MEP and Vice-Chair of the Delegation to the EU-Ukraine Parliamentary Association Committee, when she spoke at Friends of Europe’s recent report launch event on the Black Sea and European Security. You can see the responses in the video at the top of this post.

Will Russia invade Ukraine? If that happens, how should Europe respond? Should Russia be kicked out of SWIFT? Should Germany cancel Nord Stream 2? Let us know your thoughts and comments in the form below and we’ll take them to policymakers and experts for their reactions!